Reflections on the Perfect Terrorist Event

Ben Daniels

Chameleon Associates LLC

About a year ago, in Madrid, Spain, the perfect terrorist event went operational. It took about one year from planning to execution. Its execution was brilliant, almost admirable were it not for its devastating results, and the even more devastating, but perfect, aftermath (chess players would call it the “endgame”). You might ask the question... why do we discuss this now, in what seem to be glowing terms? What was “perfect” about this horrible, seemingly senseless act of terrorism?

Simply stated, without the “talking-head” hyperbole, the aim of the terrorist, any terrorist, is to convince a society (yes, an entire society) to force its government to capitulate to whatever demands the terrorist is making. The terrorist attains this goal most efficiently (in terms of money, time, and personnel) through a well-planned and orchestrated campaign of creating fear, panic, disruption, disorganization and chaos within the society, through extreme, unadulterated violence and other acts of intimidation, often against totally innocent victims. When this effort succeeds, the society, panicked and wanting a return to “normalcy”, either petitions or forces its leaders to give the terrorists what they want. The society at large, and sadly, many government leaders as well, believe capitulation will end the terrorist threat. It rarely, if ever, does. Any student of “bully psychology” knows better. But, we digress.

Madrid, Spain; March 10, 2004. Spain was supporting the U.S. in Iraq, and also (little known by the public) actually arresting members of Al Qaeda sympathizers and associates in Spain. Al Qaeda, through its emissaries (mostly Moroccan and North African Islamist militants) issued a warning to the people of Spain; “get out of Iraq”, which really meant, “stop assisting the U.S.” The then government of Spain, the so-called right-wing Popular Party (cooperating with the U.S.) refused to cave in, and said so. Spain was just four days from a national election. The opposition, the “Socialists”, campaigned on the statement that they would bring Spanish troops home from Iraq. Whether they meant it or not, they wanted to get elected, and the incumbent was saying he would keep Spanish troops there.

Thursday, March 11, 2004; 7:37 a.m. (three days from the election): The first of ten powerful bombs placed and/or carried in innocuous backpacks on four separate commuter trains exploded; the rest exploded shortly thereafter. It was rush-hour... children and adults on their way to school, to work... 191 dead within two minutes, 2,061 wounded enough to receive medical attention (966 hospitalized)... children, women, men, young and old... innocent victims of terror. An entire country devastated, in turmoil, public and private lives in chaos, disorganization, disruption and confusion... an entire country frozen in fear of further attack. "I still remember the smell of gunpowder. Finding pieces of bodies on the platform. The image of a boy's head on a bench,'' said Paco, a 42-year old worker at one train station, at the memorial service one year later.Three days later, the people of Spain, with a majority of voters, in this state of total panic and fear, predictably, voted in a new government headed by Mr. Zapatero, who immediately ordered the Spanish troops home from Iraq.

And there we have... The Perfect Terrorist Event... unfathomable violence against numerous innocents, leading the society at large, thus thoroughly intimidated, to vote in a new government that promises to do, and then does, the terrorists’ bidding. Perfect. The government of Spain thought it had all this under control. In fact, for a while, they blamed their domestic terrorist group, ETA, for this event, even though ETA had never before conducted such a complicated and wide-ranging event. It was only when Al Qaeda sympathizers began to take credit, and then subsequent events proved it was not ETA, did the government realize its mistake... and not just the mistake of blaming the wrong group. The real mistake was far more serious... they now realized their failure to gather enough intelligence, on a constant basis, to adequately and continuously assess the threat potential, and then to act on that intelligence to adequately protect their citizens.

If you think the aim of the terrorists on September 11, 2001, was to bring down the two World Trade Center towers that day, think again. We’ll discuss Al Qaeda’s intended strategy for that event in a newsletter soon.

The “war on terror” is not a war on Al Qaeda alone; to focus there is to miss the point entirely. There are terrorists of all description. Oddly enough, disparate as they may be, they have common targets. Those of us experienced in the deterrence of terrorism also know that when they run out of targets, the terrorists will go after their own former allies, precisely because of their differences. Never forget that the maxim “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”, while it helps to explain seemingly strange alliances (like our own U.S.-based “domestic” terrorists and al Qaeda) only lasts so long as there are common enemies to be destroyed. Until then, they will offer aid and comfort to each other to destroy their perceived common enemy. Yet despite their various differences, their ethnic and religious backgrounds, cultural heritage, mode of operation, intended targets, and specific grievances, they are all after the same thing, no matter who the target... the Perfect Terrorist Event.

The gauntlet thrown down by the terrorists, whoever and wherever they are, is, in its simplest terms, a challenge to stop them. At Chameleon Associates, we provide those that are prepared to meet this most serious of challenges with the intelligence capability, the tools and the techniques to predict, recognize, deter and/or avoid an intended terrorist and/or criminal event.

For more information about Chameleon Associates’ upcoming seminars please visit us at:www.chameleonassociates.com

Or call us at: (818) 734 8448

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